podcast Politics

Society Behind The Stat Ep. 05 – Bernard Whitman & Matt McDermott on The 2020 Conventions & State of The Race

Adam & Scott are back from a midsummer hiatus to talk about the 2020 Presidential Election.

This time they’ve gone in-house for guests, speaking with Democratic Pollsters & Strategists (not to mention colleagues @ WINS) Bernard Whitman and Matt McDermott.

In this episode the panel discusses the current state of the 2020 race, what the DNC and RNC each set out to accomplish, what Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s chances each come down to, and expectations for what a Trump re-election or Joe Biden victory look like for America, respectively.


WINS CSIP Insights (Waves 1-2) Slideshare

Uploaded by popular demand, here are some key insights from our first few waves of polling this summer.

WINS COVID-19 Societal Impact Project from Adam Math
Blog Post Politics Public Health

The Sweden Experiment Failed

It turns out that refusing to lock down during a deadly pandemic does not protect your economy, it just kills more of your people.

Media Politics

Conventions, VEEPStakes, and The State of the 2020 Race

WINS VP Matt McDermott talks with Dr. Christina Greer and Lincoln Mitchell on MNN’s The Election Show this week.

Blog Post

Mail-In Mayhem

Today in the NYT:

Now, nearly six weeks later, two closely watched congressional races remain undecided, and major delays in counting a deluge of 400,000 mail-in ballots and other problems are being cited as examples of the challenges facing the nation as it looks toward conducting the November general election during the pandemic.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and other officials are trading blame for the botched counting in the city, and the Postal Service is coming under criticism over whether it is equipped to handle the sharp increase in absentee ballots.

While Americans support mail-in voting during the pandemic, and many Governors have moved to make doing so easier, 17 states (including New York) have never before conducted no-excuse mail-in absentee voting for a presidential election.

The disaster in New York should be a clear warning sign that we need to better anticipate problems, better deploy strategies, and then actually have the competence to execute when it comes to holding elections during the COVID-19 era.

Blog Post

MLB’s COVID Outbreaks Cast Higher Doubt Over School Reopenings

The long-awaited return of the “core four” American sports led off with Major League Baseball on July 23rd. In the 10 days since, we’ve seen Trump vs. Fauci first-pitch drama make its way to the diamond. More disconcerting, we’ve also seen COVID outbreaks sideline 6 of the league’s 30 teams this past weekend, and a warning that the MLB season could be shut down without improvement in containing COVID-19.

So far, the NBA and NHL “bubble” experiments have fared better, and questions loom for the NFL’s kickoff in September. But outside of sports — school officials, business owners, and everyday Americans are still pondering if and how to “safely” resume their normal lives. If pro sports teams and their robust testing and safety protocols couldn’t avoid an outbreak, how can everybody else?

On the topic of schools, Adrienne LeFrance of The Atlantic didn’t mince words this weekend when she wrote “This Push to Open Schools Is Guaranteed to Fail.” And if you look at the estimated risk schools will take on by re-opening, can we really expect any other outcome for our country?

What it comes down to is Leadership and the qualities that people are looking for in leaders right now. Our own CSIP findings point to Looking after People and Workers, Being Careful, Communicating, and a Roadmap for What’s Next as top qualities that Americans want leaders to be focusing on and exhibiting.

However, if you look at what’s happened so far in MLB and the jump ball we’re seeing in the debate around Schools, we’re not seeing enough effective leadership — not by a long shot. Last week the NYC Public Schools, the largest school district in the country, submitted a “plan” that was largely insufficent. Gov. Cuomo’s team went on to say “it looks like an outline, not a plan” and noted it was just 30 pages, while smaller school districts submitted much lengthier plans.

The virus isn’t going to magically disappear in time for September. We need to contain it, and the strategy to get there should come from the top. Last week the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) released an eleven-point plan for A Way Forward on COVID-19. Whether or not this plan is the answer or will even be adopted is to be determined, but at least it’s a plan.