In the wake of last week’s vice presidential debate and Donald Trump’s coronavirus hospitalization, a new Whitman Insight Strategies poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 5-point lead among likely voters in Pennsylvania.
This poll was conducted between October 5th and 9th.
As the Washington Post wrote this weekend Pennsylvania is the ‘tipping point’ state in this election, the state that will secure the presidency for Biden or Trump. As such, both candidates are increasingly focused on the pivotal role that Pennsylvania will play in deciding the outcome of the presidential race.
Our full findings present a troubling picture for Donald Trump. Both candidates have consolidated their base, with Trump winning 86% of Republicans and Biden winning 89% of Democrats. But among non-affiliated voters, Biden holds a commanding 13-point lead. Trump won these same voters by a 7-point margin against Hillary Clinton four years ago.
Our poll also finds a historically massive voting mode difference exists in Pennsylvania. Biden is winning among voters who plan to vote early or by mail by a 52-point margin. Among voters who plan to vote in-person on Election Day, Trump is winning by an equally historic 31-point margin.
This historic gap has real implications for how votes will be counted, and what results on election night will look like (some states count early voters first, while other states count early voters after completed Election Day counts).
Finally, we measured the impact that Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis has on voter preference and find that most voters don’t think it will affect their candidate choice. A full 58% of likely voters say his diagnosis will make no difference in their support. But among those who do say it will affect their vote, more think it will make them less likely to support Trump in his reelection.
With just 22 days until the election and voters already heading to the polls in Pennsylvania, time is running out for the Trump campaign to course correct and secure a win in this critical tipping point state.