Matt McDermott, a Democratic pollster, said such results capture the paradox in Trump’s calls for law and order: His words and actions have been so confrontational that they are “leading people to conclude the Republican President is increasing the threat of violence to themselves and their community.” Trump’s uniquely belligerent posture, McDermott says, is fraying the GOP’s traditional advantage among suburbanites on keeping their communities safe.
One GOP pollster I spoke with, who asked not to be identified while discussing the party’s 2020 prospects, agreed that Trump’s response to the protests was likely to further erode his already tenuous position among college-educated white suburbanites, especially women. That will require him, the pollster said, to generate even bigger margins and more turnout from non-college whites, especially those outside of metropolitan areas.
Arguably, the most striking change since 2016 is just how far Donald Trump’s support has fallen among white women.
In 2016, Trump secured a plurality among white women against Hillary Clinton.
Now, Joe Biden leads among white women voters by 13 points. pic.twitter.com/HOizbeGcsS
— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) June 15, 2020