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The Wisdom of Crowds: The Worst Is Yet To Come

Very little good news this morning.

U.S. COVID-19 cases set new daily record as the virus decimates the South & West.

And 1.5 million new unemployment claims were filed last week despite re-opening of many regions. That marks the 14th straight week with more than 1MM new jobless claims.

Our CSIP data suggests that a plurality of Americans believe the worst is yet to come regarding the virus, and a majority feel the worst is yet to come on the economy.

And they may be correct. The United States has not been able to contain the novel coronavirus even as other developed nations have.

Even more sobering – during the Great Recession unemployment in the US peaked at just under 8% – but took nearly 6 years to recover. We are currently at nearly 13% with no end to COVID-19 spikes causing ongoing disruptions to our economy in sight.